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How is inflation calculated?Дипломатическая академия МИД РФ Кафедра английского языка НИКАНОРОВА И.А.
ЕКОТОРЫЕ ОСНОВНЫЕ ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИЕ ПОНЯТИЯ (по материалам Би- Би- Си) Москва
SOME BASIC ECONOMIC CONCEPTS Данное учебное пособие предназначено для бакалавров 4-х годичного отделения, занимающихся по направлению Экономика. Пособие состоит из оригинальных текстов Би-Би-Си, вводящих ряд важнейших экономических понятий, таких как инфляция, ВВП, количественное смягчение, фискальный обрыв и т.д., построенных по принципу ответов на вопросы по определенной теме. Тексты сопровождаются словарем, выделенным из текстов и снабженных русскими эквивалентами, и заданиями типа Give a short talk on … или Write a short essay on… Несложный характер текстов и наличие словаря к ним дают возможность пользоваться ими на ранней стадии специализации, когда обучающиеся еще не владеют экономической терминологией, но их общая языковая компетенция соответствует уровню B1-B2. Помимо этого, пособие служит хорошим дополнением к учебнику Guide to Economics, т.к. дает сведения по многим темам, представленным в учебнике. Порядок текстов в пособии произволен, т.е. нет необходимости жестко следовать оглавлению. Преподаватель может выбирать нужные ему темы, имея, однако, в виду, что повтор экономических терминов в разделе Vocabulary достаточно редок и текст может оказаться сложным для понимания без дополнительной обработки словаря. Отличительной чертой пособия является то, что в текстах отражены современные экономические понятия, а раздел Vocabulary содержит единицы, которые вошли в экономический пласт языка в последние несколько лет. Это облегчает переход к работе над более сложными аутентичными материалами. WHAT IS GDP? GDP, or Gross Domestic Product, is the most important of all economic statistics as it attempts to capture the state of the economy in one number. Quite simply, if the GDP measure is up on the previous three months, the economy is growing. If it is negative, it is contracting. And two consecutive three-month periods of contraction mean an economy is in recession. What is GDP? Output measure: This is the value of the goods and services produced by all sectors of the economy; agriculture, manufacturing, energy, construction, the service sector and government Expenditure measure: This is the value of the goods and services purchased by households and by government, investment in machinery and buildings. It also includes the value of exports minus imports Income measure: The value of the income generated mostly in terms of profits and wages. In theory all three approaches should produce the same number. In the UK the Office for National Statistics (ONS) publishes one single measure of GDP which, apart from the first estimate, is calculated using all three ways of measuring. Usually the main interest in the UK figures is in the quarterly change in GDP in real terms, that is after taking into account changes in prices (inflation). How is GDP calculated? Calculating a GDP estimate for all three measures is a huge undertaking every three months. The output measure alone - which is considered the most accurate in the short term - involves surveying tens of thousands of UK firms. The main sources used for this are ONS surveys of manufacturing and service industries. Information on sales is collected from 6,000 companies in manufacturing, 25,000 service sector firms, 5,000 retailers and 10,000 companies in the construction sector. Data is also collected from government departments covering activities such as agriculture, energy, health and education.
The UK produces the earliest estimate of GDP of the major economies, around 25 days after the quarter in question. This provides policymakers with an early, or "flash", estimate of the real growth in economic activity. It is quick, but only based on the output measure. At that stage only about 40% of the data is available, so this figure is revised as more information comes in. They are two subsequent revisions at monthly intervals. But this isn't the end. Revisions can be made as much as 18 months to two years after the first "flash" estimate. What is GDP used for? GDP is the principal means of determining the health of the UK economy and is used by the Bank of England and its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) as one of the key indicators in setting interest rates. So, for example, if prices are rising too fast, the Bank would be expected to increase interest rates to try to control them. But it may hold off if GDP growth is sluggish, as higher rates could damage the recovery. The Treasury also uses GDP when planning economic policy. When an economy is contracting, tax receipts tend to fall, and the government adjusts its tax and spending plans accordingly. UK GDP is used internationally by the various financial bodies such as OECD, IMF, and the World Bank to compare the performance of different economies. The European Union also uses GDP estimates as a basis for determining different countries' contributions to the EU budget.
I. Vocabulary: Gross Domestic Product or GDP – валовый внутренний продукт, ВВП measure – зд. показатель; измерение; измерять grow – расти ( о производстве) growth – рост (производства, экономики) contract – сокращаться (о производстве) contraction – сокращение (производства, экономики) two consecutive three-month periods (quarters) – два квартала подряд recession – экономический спад, рецессия output – объем производства, производство expenditure – расходы, затраты, издержки income – доход value – стоимость in terms of – в терминах; in real terms - в реальных терминах profit – прибыль wages – зарплата Office for National Statistics, ONS – Национальное статистическое управление Великобритании
quarter – квартал; quarterly – квартальный survey – обзор; рассматривать manufacturing industries - обрабатывающие отрасли service industries – сфера услуг retailer – предприятие розничной торговли get revised – пересматриваться, корректироваться revision – корректировка in the interim - в промежуточный период flash estimate – предварительная оценка Bank of England – Банк Англии (центральный банк страны) Monetary Policy Committee, MPC – Комитет по денежно-кредитной политике set interest rates – устанавливать процентные ставки sluggish (о росте) – вялый, неактивный Treasury – казначейство; министерство финансов Великобритании tax receipts – налоговые поступления adjust tax and spending plans – корректировать планы налоговых поступлений и расходов
OECD, Organization for Economic Cooperation and development – ОЭСР, Организация экономического сотрудничества и развития
IMF, International Monetary Fund – МВФ, Международный валютный фонд World Bank – Всемирный банк performance – результаты деятельности, деятельность contribution – вклад, взнос
II. Answer the following questions using as many vocabulary items as possible? 1. What is GDP? 2. How is GDP measured? 3. How often are new GDP figures released? 4. What is a flash estimate?
III. Give a short talk on the various uses of GDP by financial bodies. INFLATION Inflation is one of the most important issues in economics. It influences the interest rate we get on our savings and the rate we pay on our mortgages. Inflation also affects the level of state pensions and benefits, as well as the price of some train tickets.
What is inflation? Inflation is the rate of increase in prices for goods and services. There are a number of different measures of inflation in use. The most frequently quoted and most significant ones are the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) and the Retail Prices Index (RPI). Each looks at the prices of hundreds of things we commonly spend money on, including bread, cinema tickets and pints of beer - and tracks how these prices have changed over time. The inflation rates are expressed as percentages. If CPI is 3%, this means that on average, the price of products and services we buy is 3% higher than a year earlier. Or, in other words, we would need to spend 3% more to buy the same things we bought 12 months ago. RPI includes housing costs such as mortgage interest payments and council tax, whereas CPI does not. But that only accounts for a small part of the difference between RPI and CPI. The main difference is caused by the fact that, although they use much of the same data, they calculate the inflation rate using different formulae. The one CPI uses takes into account that when prices rise, some people will switch to lower priced alternatives. They will swap a higher priced brand of biscuits for a lower one, for example. This results in a lower CPI reading than RPI in nearly all cases.
Why is it important? The data from the CPI and RPI rates are used in many ways by the government and businesses, and play an important role in setting economic policy. That's because the Bank of England uses it to set interest rates. If the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee[1] thinks inflation will be above 2% in the next two years or so, it may increase interest rates to try to subdue it. Conversely if it thinks inflation is likely to be below 2%, it may cut interest rates. That's why inflation is a crucial factor in determining the rates banks charge for mortgages and the rates they offer on savings accounts. It also has a direct impact on some people's incomes. Anything that is described as index-linked rises in line with inflation. That includes state benefits, pensions and - in part - some train tickets. Some companies use the level of inflation to set annual pay rises. How is inflation calculated? Every month the Office for National Statistics (ONS)[2] collects more than 100,000 prices of goods and services from a wide range of retailers across the country - including online retailers. Prices are updated every month and price collectors visit the same retailers each time in order to monitor identical goods and make sure they are comparing like with like. All these prices are combined using information on average household spending patterns to produce an overall prices index.
I. Vocabulary: inflation – инфляция interest rates – процентные ставки set ~ устанавливать процентные ставки increase ~ увеличивать процентные ставки cut ~ уменьшать процентные ставки mortgage rate – процентная ставка по ипотеке inflation rate – уровень инфляции benefits – льготы Consumer Prices Index (CPI) – индекс потребительских цен (ИПЦ) Retail Prices Index (RPI) – индекс розничных цен (ИРЦ) mortgage interest payments – уплата процентов по ипотеке council tax – муниципальный налог switch to smth – переключиться на ч-л swap smth for smth – обменять ч-л на ч-л set economic policy – определять экономическую политику savings account – срочный вклад index-linked – индексируемый II. Answer the following questions using as many vocabulary items as possible: 1. What is inflation? 2. What are the most significant measures of inflation in use? What is the difference between them? 3. What impact does inflation have on interest rates set by the Bank of England? 4. How is inflation calculated? III. Write an essay of 180-200 words on the topic: 
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